Подходы к построению вероятностных моделей процессов системы…
9
Approaches to constructing probabilistic models
of industrial supply system processes in order
to assess its reliability
© P.A. Nikolaev
Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow 105005, Russia
Due to the high cost of downtime, high-tech production requires highly reliable material
supply. Calculation of supply system reliability should consider non-deterministic phe-
nomenon occurring in material-technical process. The most reliable information about
these phenomena is the statistics of the processes that make up the system. It is necessary
to consider the relevance and the lack of information available, when constructing prob-
abilistic models of the processes involved in the calculation of reliability, which is based
on the probable model of the supply system,.
The article considers methods of constructing probabilistic models of supply system pro-
cesses with account of the above-mentioned shortcomings in the available data. Attention
is paid to the work with information on functioning of the existing procurement system
and its updating due to improving logistics processes. These methods will be useful for
companies which lack an analytical solution of the problem of estimating the supply sys-
tem reliability, but for the constituent processes of this system there is information about
their functioning.
Keywords:
reliability, supply, logistic support, organization of production, statistics ap-
proaches, Monte Carlo method.
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vannykh struktur
[Methodology, methods and models of managing organiza-
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A.A. Kolobov, ed. Moscow, Bauman MSTU Publ., 2005, 240 p.
[2]
Shraibfeder D.
Effektivnoe upravlenie zapasami
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[in Russian], 2nd ed. Moscow, Al'pina Business Books Publ., 2006, 304 p.
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Klimenko V.V.
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2012, no. 01 (49),
pp. 12–20.
Nikolaev P.A.
(b. 1987) graduated from Bauman Moscow State Technical University
in 2011. A post-graduate of the Industrial Logistics Department at Bauman Moscow State
Technical University. He has four publications on reliability of production processes.
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