Technical and Economic Forecast of Launch Activity in the Russian Federation
Published: 17.09.2026
Authors: Bechasnov P.M., Drozdov I.P.
Published in issue: #9(177)/2026
Category: Aviation and Rocket-Space Engineering | Chapter: Design, Construction, Production, Testing, and Operation of Aircraft
This is the second part of a study of trends in global orbital cargo traffic and is devoted to the formation of a technical and economic forecast for the development of Russian launch activity. Based on a retrospective analysis of Russian spacecraft launch data, the article identifies changes in the average masses of satellites for various purposes and an increase in their design service life. A regression model for the dependence of payload cost on its mass and production volume was developed and presented, which allowed comparing the financial costs of deploying orbital constellations with the macroeconomic capabilities of the state. Three scenarios for the development of Russian launch activity are formulated, taking into account both the needs of national space service consumers and export potential. It has been established that under the global trend toward spacecraft miniaturization and the reduction of available cargo flow, the existing fleet of heavy and medium Russian launch vehicles requires supplementation with light and ultra-light class rockets.
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