An approach to design based on reliability forecasting
Authors: Pokhabov Yu.P., Kaverin V.A., Vasiliev A.M., Zemskov V.A., Shchukin D.A.
Published in issue: #4(160)/2025
DOI: 10.18698/2308-6033-2025-4-2439
Category: Aviation and Rocket-Space Engineering | Chapter: Design, Construction, Production, Testing, and Operation of Aircraft
The statistical foundations of the modern reliability theory are not intended to forecast reliability in design based on selecting the design parameter values and establishing the design documentation requirements. A design method is required that allows justifying the design ability to ensure reliability of a product that does not yet exist by selecting materials, dimensions, tolerances, interrelations of structural elements, and other solutions. The paper considers an approach to design based on reliability forecast that links the performance parameters with the reliability indicators, provided that the formalized procedures are followed. They include design parameters justification and evaluation based on the specified operating modes and conditions, establishment of necessary and sufficient design documentation requirements based on selected and justified design parameters; and meeting the conditions of defect-free production. To implement this approach, the paper establishes a relationship between performance and reliability using the design reserves, and proposes a reliability terminology that allows the designer to verify and evaluate their solutions for reliability justification. It provides an algorithm and procedures of verification of design solutions with assessment of predicted reliability. Practical significance of the approach lies in systematic identification of potential threats to reduce the risks of failures using design methods arising from the logic of the designer's work.
EDN QMARYX
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