Analysis of specifics in using the ultra-light launch vehicles based on the launch statistics
Authors: Bechasnov P.M.
Published in issue: #12(156)/2024
DOI: 10.18698/2308-6033-2024-12-2407
Category: Aviation and Rocket-Space Engineering | Chapter: Design, construction and production of aircraft
The paper considers specifics in a launch program of the modern foreign ultra-light launch vehicles (ULLV). Taking into account the pros and cons of a further increase in the number of their launches, it analyzes the energy required in deploying the existing satellite constellations and the number of launches. Orbital parameters and main features of the constellations launched by the accompanying launches within the Transporter mission by the SpaceX being the main competitor of ULLV are clarified. Statistical analysis of the foreign nano- and microsatellites launches shows that only a very small proportion of the satellite constellations currently being deployed could be provided by the complete ULLV engagement. Most of them are the nano-satellites, Starlink and OneWeb satellites, which are not designed for an ULLV launch. At the same time, the accompanying launch wins a competition with the ULLV reducing the cost in deploying constellations that do not require a large number of orbital planes and/or the spacecraft precise positioning in an orbit. The paper determines periodicity and cost of launching the operated ULLVs and the energy required, as well as the actual degree of the ULLV loading and its impact on the cost of launching. The ULLV preferred use in the USA and China are differing significantly. It is due to the specific cost ration between the ULLV accompanying launch and a dedicated launch, taking into account the average load. It is about 14 for the USA and no more than 2.5 for China. This limits the ULLV launches in the USA, as a dual-purpose system primarily, in taking into orbit both the government and quasi-government payloads that could not be realized by the accompanying launches. The Chinese ULLVs are cheaper and put into orbit the entire spectrum of the small-sized payloads including a large number of the experimental spacecraft. Nevertheless, the share of government spacecraft, presumably dual-use, is also very high for them. The number of ULLV launches in China is increasing faster than in the USA. The number of orders in the USA, as well as the number of experimental spacecraft launched in China, indicate potential for further growth in the ULLV launches periodicity in both the countries. Main consumers of the ULLV launches in the USA are the radar constellations, in China — the experimental spacecraft, as well as constellations of the operational surveillance, IoT communications and low-orbit navigation.
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